Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 9 Oct 2018

 

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BULLION


Gold prices held steady early Friday as investors remained cautious after U.S. Treasury yields hit multi year peaks and ahead of monthly employment data which if stronger could boost the Federal Reserves case for a tighter monetary policy. Spot gold was flat at $1,199.20 an ounce at the time of writing. Spot gold was on track to gain 0.6 percent for the week which would mark its biggest weekly gain since the week of Aug. 24. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1 percent to $1,202.90 an ounce.


ENERGY

Oil prices rose on Friday as traders focused on U.S. sanctions against Iran's crude exports that are set to start next month to tighten global markets. The gains helped claw back some of the losses from the previous session due to rising U.S. inventories and after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would raise output to at least partly make up for expected disruptions from Iran.

The government announced a 10 percent hike in price of domestic natural gas a move that will translate into higher CNG price and increased cost of electricity and urea production.

Base Metals

London aluminium held its ground on Friday as worries over an alumina shortage stoked cost inflation concerns sending prices towards the biggest weekly gain in nearly six months. London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium was little changed at $2,167 a tonne down just 0.1 percent after hitting its loftiest since June at $2,267 the session before. Prices were on track for a 5.8 percent weekly rise the biggest since April.


SPICES

Markets found some immediate support at these lower levels for Jeer. Reports from Gujarat indicate a below normal rain to adversely affect the sowing starting later this month. As sowing seasons starts in a months time from now rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan would be critical for the moisture content in the soil for improved sowing.

Turmeric started getting some immediate strong support at these lower levels after the recent massive fall in prices. Falling stocks amidst rise in Festive season domestic demand and export demand are likely to support prices in coming weeks with new crop arrivals only in Dec end all these factors could provide support to the prices that have fallen a lot.


OILSEEDS

Mentha hit the upper circuit as strong fundamentals ruled the commodity. Rising export demand amidst adverse reports on the production front are likely to support prices in coming weeks. Winter season demand is expected to pick up over the next few months on the domestic as well as the export front.

Strength in global markets and domestic soy bean was bullish for soya oil but ahead of Indian/US harvest season of the soy bean crop not much of upside is expected in edible oils especially soya oil.

GUAR COMPLEX

Prospects of fall in sowing area amidst reports of crop damage in Rajasthan shall support prices in longer run. Rains in Rajasthan had earlier adversely affected market sentiments leading to some fall in rates. However with low rains reported in West Rajasthan and excess rains reported in East Rajasthan market sources believe both these factors to be damaging for the crop.


OTHERS

Indian production of soy beans for 2018/19 is expected 300,000 tons lower this month to 10.5 million. At 11.2 million hectares the area sown by Indian farmers this year was less than anticipated. The domestic crush for soy bean is forecast unchanged though so the crop reduction may repeat a low level of season ending stocks in India.

RM seed futures at NCDEX have stabilized in recent weeks after impact of NAFED selling has been discounted completely. Incoming months the projected decline in domestic mustard's sowing area versus last year will be seen as a key bullish fundamental in broader term.



On its daily hourly chart JPYINR recently broken its downtrend channel and forming reversal formation on lower levels indicating short term bounce back in it. Last week JPYINR made a high of 65.4550 and closed at 65.0675 with overall marginal gain of 1.19% on weekly basis. On its daily chart market is supported by the level of 64.0000 and RSI still indicating positive movement in it. For this week, if it breaks the level of 65.4600 on the upper side then it can test the level of 65.9800 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 65.0975



USDINR
The primary trend of USDINR is bullish on chart and from last couple of trading weeks USDINR is trading with positive sentiment with positive RSI. Last week USDINR made a high of 74.4475 and closed at 74.0125 with overall marginal gain of 1.72% on weekly basis. As last week we already USDINR broken its bullish flag pattern and sustaining above it indicating bullish trend this week also. For this week, if it breaks the level of 74.4500 on the upper side then it can test the level of 74.9800 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 74.0475


DHANIYA
Last week Dhaniya started a week on negative note but found enough support near the level of 5000 and getting bounce back from lower level indicating strong support zone near the level of 5000. On its daily chart market is forming higher highs and higher lows formation indicating positive trend in it. For this week, if it breaks the level of 5060 on the upper side then it can test the level of 5195 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 5007.


RMSEED
From last couple of trading weeks RMSEED is trading with negative sentiment and forming lower highs and lows formation on its daily chart indicating bearish trend in it. On its 4 hourly chart RSI is trading in negative territory and printing below the level of 50 indicating short term negative movement in it. Last week RMSEED made a low of 4109 and closed at 4117 with overall marginal loss of 1.53% on weekly basis. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4170 on the lower side then it can test the level of 4040 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL at 4225.


LEAD
From last couple of trading weeks market is trading in tight range of 150 to 147 and forming sideways trading range. On its daily chart RSI moving in positive territory and printing above the level of 50 indicating short term positive movement in it. Last week Lead made a high of 151.75 and closed at 147.90 with overall marginal loss of 0.24% on weekly basis. For this week, if it breaks the level of 147 on the upper side then it can test the level of 150.50 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 145.90.

COPPER
Last week Copper made a high of 469.35 and closed at 456.55 with overall marginal gain of 0.79% on weekly basis. And we can see from last couple trading weeks market is trading in sideways trading channel with negative RSI and on its four hourly chart Copper is forming lower highs formation indicating negative trend in it. For this week, if it breaks the level of 450 on the lower side then it can test the level of 440 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL at 456.

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