Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 4 Dec 2018

 

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BULLION

Gold prices were steady early on Monday as the dollar weakened on U.S. China trade truce that revived investor demand for riskier assets. Spot gold inched up 0.1 percent to $1,222.97 per ounce at the time of writing. U.S. gold futures were up 0.2 percent at $1,228.1 per ounce. The dollar index which measures the green back against a basket of six major currencies was down about 0.2 percent. Asian shares rallied on Monday after U.S. and Chinese leaders brokered a truce in their trade conflict a relief for the global economic outlook and a tonic for emerging markets.

ENERGY

Oil jumped on Monday after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to extend into 2019 their deal to manage the oil market known as OPEC although Moscow and Riyadh have yet to confirm any fresh output cuts. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $53.38 per barrel at the time of writing, up $2.45 per barrel or 4.8 percent from their last close.

The Energy Information Administration released its report on US natural gas storage showing a deficit of 59 billion cubic feet in the week ending November 23 compared to a decline of 134 billion in the previous reading while analysts expected a 76 billion decline.

Base Metals

London and Shanghai industrial metals jumped on Monday after U.S. and Chinese leaders agreed to a ceasefire in a trade dispute that has shaken global markets. China and the United States agreed to halt additional tariffs in a deal that keeps their trade war from escalating as the two sides try again to bridge their differences with fresh talks aimed at reaching an agreement within 90 days.

SPICES
Jeer traded down last week as reports of improved sowing in recent days from the recent rains kept pressure on market sentiments. The recent reports of rains in parts of growing areas in Gujarat and Rajasthan amidst reports of improved sowing with cooler climate likely in coming weeks had kept trend down.

Amidst high volatility Turmeric found some strong support at these lower levels even as higher stocks amidst lower demand kept pressurizing market sentiment. Technically trend does not look very positive as for now.



OILSEEDS

Mentha Oil kept trading weak last week on lack of strong demand as traders waited for some corrections in prices before initiating demand for the winter season. Overall sentiments are likely to recover during the winter season.

Trend remained weak for Ref Soy oil as a strong Rupee kept up trend limited. Fall in International markets too kept some pressure on prices.

GUAR COMPLEX

Good arrivals of new crop, amidst a strong Rupee and falling crude oil rates had adversely had kept pressure on prices as rates crashed. Traders anticipate the demand to grow in coming days on the export front. Prospects of lower production from less rains received in Rajasthan supported prices. Reports of lower arrivals of new crop amidst prospects of fall in sowing area are Bullish factors.


OTHERS

RM seed traded down last week tracking other oil complex weakness as good sowing reports amidst low demand kept pressure on prices. Reports of NAFED still having good amount of stocks to sell in the physical market kept trend weak.

Soy bean traded under slight pressure last week even as International markets traded firm. Currently the spot prices are still considered lower therefore the recent downgrading of India soy bean ending stock estimate by the USDA can offer some support for the derivative market in longer run.


CASTOR
From last couple of trading weeks Castor is trading with negative sentiment but unable to break the level of 5200 and we seen that 5200 level reacted as a strong support zone in Castor. Last week Castor made a low of 5284 and closed at the level of 5348 with overall marginal loss of 3.25% on weekly basis. Technically Castor is trading above its support level of 5200 and we are expecting bounce back in it from lower level. For this week if it is break the level of 5508 on upper side then it can test the level of 5648. One can make buy position in it with SL of 5449.

COCUDAKL

Last week COCUDAKL started a week on negative not but found enough support near the level of 1900 and made bottom formation on its daily chart. Last week COCUDAKL made a low of 1890.50 and closed at the level of 1907 with overall marginal loss of 2.43% on weekly basis. The primary trend of COCUDAKL is positive and it is sustaining above its support level of 1900. For this week if it is break the level of 1933 on upper side then it can test the level of 2063. One can make buy position in it with SL of 1878.

COPPER
Last week Copper made a high of 431.30 and closed at the level of 433.10 with overall marginal loss of 0.90% on weekly basis. Copper recently broken its downtrend channel and sustaining above it indicating positive movement in it. On its daily chart RSI is trading in positive territory and printing above the level of 50. For this week if it is break the level of 466.50 on upper side then it can test the level of 468. One can make buy position in it with SL of 441.50.




ALUMINIUM

On its daily chart Aluminium recently broken its resistance trend line and sustaining near the level of 140 and we can expect short term positive movement in it. Last week Copper made a high of 138.40 and closed at the level of 137.20 with overall marginal loss of 0.36% on weekly basis. On its daily chart Aluminium is taking support of 100 days moving average and RSI is printing level 50 on charts. For this week if it is break the level of 141 on upper side then it can test the level of 146. One can make buy position in it with SL of 139.40.

FOREX
Last week GBPINR Dec Futures started the week on negative note and continue the same for whole week, market closed below the level of 90.0000 and it closed at 89.2350 with the overall loss of 2.38 per cent on weekly basis. Technically it consolidating below the major psychological support level of 90.0000 with the negative RSI and for this week, we can expect further downside movement in it.
For this week, if it breaks the level of 89.5000 on the lower, then it can test the level of 89.0125 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 89.8525

EURINR
Last week EURINR Dec Futures started the week on negative note and continue the same for whole week, market closed below the level of 80.0000 and it closed at 79.6475 with the overall loss of 2.06 per cent on weekly basis. Technically EURINR sustaining below its support trend line also RSI is trading in negative territory indicating negative trend for this week also.
For this week, if it breaks the level of 79.6000 on the lower, then it can test the level of 79.0125 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 80.0125


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