Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 3 Oct 2018

 

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BULLION
Gold prices dipped in the morning session with the dollar holding steady after marking a near threeweek high in the previous session in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserves plans last week for multiple interest rate hikes by 2020. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,189.22 at the time of writing. The metal fell 0.8 percent in September marking its sixth straight monthly decline and longest monthly losing streak since January 1997. On Fridaygold touched its lowest since Aug. 17 at $1,180.34 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,193.0 an ounce.

ENERGY
Brent crude oil prices rose to their highest since November 2014 on Monday ahead of U.S. sanctions against Iran the thirdlargest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that kick in next month. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $73.57 a barrel.
The Energy Information Administration released its report on US natural gas storage showing a buildup of 46 billion cubic feet in the week ending September 21 adding to the 86 billion increase in the previous week while analysts expected a 64B addition.

Base Metals
London metal prices eased on Monday amid evidence that the SinoU.S. trade dispute impacted Chinas manufacturing activity last month and as a weeklong holiday got under way in the country. Growth in Chinas manufacturing sector sputtered in September as both external and domestic demand weakened two surveys showed on Sunday raising the pressure on policymakers as U.S. tariffs appear to be inflicting a heavier toll on the Chinese economy.

SPICES
Jeer failed to hold onto the higher levels as markets faced strong Resistance at the 19000 mark. The recent rains in parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan kept prospects of improved sowing in October. As sowing seasons starts in a months time from now rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan would be critical for the moisture content in the soil for improved sowing.
Prices bounced back from the lower levels for Turmeric as moderate recovery was noted. Arrivals started falling at these lower levels. Falling stocks amidst a rise in Festive season domestic demand and export demand with new crop arrivals only in Decendall these factors could provide support to the prices that have fallen a lot.

OILSEEDS

Mentha hit 4% Upper circuit during end of the week after showing a bearish trend throughout last week as short covering amidst rise in demand at these lower levels supported the market sentiments.
Possibility of India to hike import duty over edible oils shall be an obstacle against rise in prices in near term. The near term trend for palm oil looks slightly bullish on anticipation of production to grow slower than previous expectations. This in turn shall influence soya oil as both have strong positive correlation with each other.

GUAR COMPLEX
Trend remained very volatile for Guar but some support was noted at the lower levels with expected recovery likely. Prospects of fall in sowing area amidst reports of crop damage in Rajasthan supported prices. However with low rains reported in West Rajasthan and excess rains reported in East Rajasthan market sources believe both these factors to be damaging for the crop.

OTHERS
RM seed futures have stabilized in recent weeks after impact of NAFED selling has been discounted completely. Traders did not hear any fresh bearish news on Friday and as sellers intentions weakened in mandis futures started moving upward.
Bearish trend was noted for Cotton / Kapas. Bearish reports from USDA may limit upside moves as of now. Govt doubled import duty on 328 textile items to 20%. Rise in duties would give edge to domestic manufacturers as imported products are currently cheaper.

ALUMINIUM
From last couple of trading days Aluminium is trading with positive sentiment with positive RSI and we are expecting that Aluminium can continue its positive trend from this week also. Last week Aluminium made a high of 152.10 and closed at 149.40 with overall marginal loss of 0.86% on weekly basis. Aluminum recently broken its downtrend resistance trend line on upper side and sustaining above it indicating positive movement in it. For this week, if it breaks the level of 152 on the upper side then it can test the level of 156.50 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 150.40.

MCX:

From last couple of trading weeks market is trading in tight range of 150 to 142 and forming sideways trading range. On its daily chart RSI moving in positive territory and printing above the level of 50 indicating short term positive movement in it. Last week Lead made a high of 151 and closed at 148.20 with overall marginal loss of 0.10% on weekly basis. For this week, if it breaks the level of 150.50 on the upper side then it can test the level of 156.00 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 149.
Prices bounced back from the lower levels for Turmeric as moderate recovery was noted. Falling stocks amidst a rise in Festive season domestic demand and export demand with new crop arrivals only in Decendall these factors could provide support to the prices that have fallen a lot.

DHANIYA
Dhaniya is continuously trading with negative sentiment and trading below the support level of 5000. Last week Dhaniya made a low of 4830 and closed at 4862 with overall marginal loss of 4.55% on weekly basis. On its daily chart market is continuously forming lower highs and lower lows indicating negative trend in it. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4800 on the lower side then it can test the level of 4670 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL at 4855.

GUARSEED.
From last couple of trading days GUARSEED is trading in tight range of 4350 to 4250 and forming sideways trading range. On its 4 hourly chart RSI moving in positive territory and printing near the level of 50 indicating short term positive movement in it. Last week GUARSEED made a high of 4354 and closed at 4310 with overall marginal gain of 0.09% on weekly basis. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4355 on the upper side then it can test the level of 4485 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 4299.

: GBPINR
The primary trend of GBPINR is bullish on chart and from last couple of trading weeks GBPINR is trading with positive sentiment with positive RSI. Last week GBPINR made a high of 96.4000 and closed at 95.0175 with overall marginal loss of 0.78% on weekly basis. As last week we already seen profit booking on chart and we believe that market can continue its main trend this week also supported positive RSI. For this week, if it breaks the level of 95.5400 on the upper side then it can test the level of 96.4525 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 95.1325

JPYINR
On its four hourly chart JPYINR is trading in downtrend channel and forming reversal formation on lower levels indicating short term bounce back in it. Last week JPYINR made a low of 64.2100 and closed at 64.3000 with overall marginal loss of 0.31% on weekly basis. On its daily chart market is supported by the level of 64.0000 and RSI still indicating positive movement in it. For this week, if it breaks the level of 64.4000 on the upper side then it can test the level of 64.9850 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 64.0825

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