Battling between the bullish and bearish macros, gold prices failed to win hearts of investors offering a negative return of around 5 percent for 2018.A bearish chart pattern - Death Cross has materialised in gold, indicating that the precious metal is likely to extend a recent downtrend that has dragged it to its lowest level in 2018.A Death Cross is a technical pattern which is formed when a 50-period moving average crosses below the 200-period moving average. The pattern which was last seen in commodities in November 2016 and resulted in a decline of more than $50 in metal prices.
Asian Brent crude oil which was trading at a premium against WTI on concerns over OPEC supplyhas now reversed the trend after OPEC decision to hike output. The premium of ICE Brent crude over NYMEX WTI was around $11, the highest in more than 3 years, early this month before falling to $5
The Energy Information Administration released its report on US natural gas inventories, showing a buildup of 66 billion cubic feet in the week ending June 22 adding to the 91B buildup in the previous reading, while analysts expected a 73B increase.
Base Matel: There is ample liquidity for an active fixed-price spot market and participants in the regional scrap and long steel segments are actively looking at cfr Vietnam prices to assess the latest movements. Its importance has grown to match that of the benchmark Metal Bulletin cfr Taiwan import price assessment, especially with import volumes continuing to grow quickly.Therefore, Metal Bulletin intends to provide a regular assessment of cfr Vietnam ferrous scrap prices in the spot market.
Jeer kept trading firm last week on rising export and domestic demand, in addition to the falling arrivals. Low stocks in International markets and shifting export demand towards India aided by a firm Dollar vs Rupee, are also acting as key bullish factors.
Markets talks suggest that a significant drop in sowing in regions across Erode due to a drought like situation last year. As per trader estimates, production is expected to fall by 1-3 lakh bags from the normal 15-20 lakh bags seen on an average. This lower production will be to some extent compensated by a higher production expectation from AP and Maharashtra.
Moderate recovery was noted for Mentha oil as rains in growing regions of UP are apprehended to adversely affect the harvesting process-leading to some more firmness in prices. Daily demand remains strong enough to absorb the supplies. This too could support prices. Soya oil traded slight firm last week. On going trade restrictions between China and USA had been putting pressure over the soya oil market of late but with China removing import duty on soymeal from India it will be seen as a supportive factor for soy oil to some extent.
Moderate firm trend was noted for Guar on rising crude oil prices and firmness in Dollar vs Rupee, that may aid the export demand. The bearish impact of favourable Monsoon reports amidst lack of strong demand seem to be gradually getting over. As Monsoon nears the growing areas of Rajasthan, there are expectations that further fall from these levels may be limited as they would not be sustainable for trading purpose in the mandis.
RM seed faced immediate strong Resistance at the 4000 mark amid news of rains in areas in Rajasthan. Overall, positive tone in edible oils and soybean continued supporting prices at lower levels. In forthcoming sessions, steady demand for mustard oil, lowering arrivals and drop in the crop acreage shall be influential in keeping the upward trend intact
Sideways trend was noted for Cotton/Kapas last week as monsoon neared growing regions of Gujarat. Adverse trade related issues between US and China kept apprehensions of lower demand for Cotton from US by China. However, firm Indian fundamentals are likely to support prices in coming sessions as demand may shift to India.
During its last trade on Friday, dhaniya futures traded in range bound levels with negative bias. Prices traded higher hitting five week high of Rs.4713/quintal tracking good buying activities at the spot market. Further, as monsoon has arrived in the growing regions, fears of quality damage to stored and dried stocks if heavy rainfall occurs kept the sentiments higher. Dhaniya futures are expected to trade in positive note for the next week. Lower levels buying from stockiest are likely to support dhaniya futures prices.
Moderate firm trend was noted for Guar on rising crude oil prices and firmness in Dollar vs Rupee, that may aid the export demand. The bearish impact of favorable Monsoon reports amidst lack of strong demand seem to be gradually getting over. It made high of 8285 during the week and closed at 8171 with marginal gain of 9% on the weekly basis. Technically it consolidating above the resistance level of 8000 with the positive RSI and for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it.
WTI and MCX oil prices rose more than 8 percent last week citing several supply concerns. Falling production in Venezuela and Libya, along with the risk of lower output from Iran as a result of U.S. sanctions, have all increased market worries of a supply shortage. This week we can expect further uptrend rally in Crude oil prices. For this week, if it breaks the level of if it breaks the level of 5110 on the upside then it can test the level of 5250 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 5040
Zinc prices on Friday traded negative and went lower by 0.82% at MCX futures market on Friday. Whereas LME prices closed down by 1.65% on Friday. At LME, stocks decreased by 0.01% and the inventories withdrawals in form of cancelled warrants went down by 0.09% as per the closing of LME trading session on Friday. Market is trading at its important support level of 200 and we are expecting that market can bounce back from here. For this week, if it breaks the level of if it breaks the level of 199 on the upside then it can test the level of 203.50 and then 205 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 197.90
Last week EURINR Jul Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 80.4375 during the week and closed at on 80.2175 with the overall gain of 1.63% on weekly basis. Technically it consolidating above the major support level of 80.0000 with the positive RSI and volume and for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it. On
For this week, if it breaks the level of if it breaks the level of 80.3800 on the upside then it can test the level of 80.9800 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 79.9925
Last week USDINR Jul Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same till Thursday and made a high of 69.3350. On the last day of the week, we saw profit booking in it from the higher levels and it closed at 68.7250 with the overall gain of 0.93% on weekly basis. Technically it consolidating on the higher levels of the charts with the positive RSI and volume, and for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it.
For this week, if it breaks the level of 69.0000 on the upside, then it can test the level of 69.5000 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 68.6950
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