Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 19 June 2018

 

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BULLION
Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust the world's largest goldbacked investment fund steadied at 856.17 tonnes on Thursday with no change the lowest since April 5, after rising 3%, or 23.63 tonnes in 2017, while gold prices rose 13% last year.Technical parameter MACD signals momentum on weekly chart that shows dips are buying opportunities in the counter. For coming week perspective prices have key support near Rs.31240- 31280 that would keep the momentum going. On the higher side Rs.31620 is the previous swing top and a break above the same would lead to prices surging towards Rs.31850 level. Strength is visible on charts and one can take the benefit of the same by buying gold near Rs.31310- 31330 zone for target price of Rs.31600and next at Rs.31840 level while considering Rs.31240 as stop loss for the trade.

ENERGY
The energy counter remained a strong pick for the week amid solid fundamentals with bulls using every dip to enter longs. Prices gained more than 2.5 % for the week to settle at Rs.4793/bbl. Uptrend on both daily and weekly charts remains intact as prices have witnessed a breakout above the crucial hurdle of $70/bbl and look to continue with their upwards voyage.
The Energy Information Administration released its report on US natural gas inventories showing a buildup of 106 billion cubic feet in the week ending May 11, up from 89 billion in the previous reading while analysts expected a 105 billion buildup.

Base Metals
The base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed with copper, lead and nickel prices up by 0.4%, 0.6% and 1.5% respectively with copper prices at 51,290 yuan ($8,053) per tonne, while aluminium and tin prices were down by 0.6% and zinc prices were down by 0.1%.Spot copper prices in Changing were up by 0.1% at 50,970-51,070 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is at 7.46.

SPICES
No strong movement was noted for Jeer but slight firm sentiments prevailed in mandis on lower arrivals as prices hovered near the psychological 16000 mark. Good monsoon reports once again capped the upside.The demand for the new crop is expected to rise at these lower levels in coming days.
Turmeric prices weakened slightly Prices stabilized at the lower levels for Turmeric even as good and early arrival of monsoon reports kept pressure on prices as that would be good for the crop sowing. Rising demand on export and domestic front will support prices in coming weeks.

OILSEEDS
Strength in palm oil and global markets helped soya oil in reviving the upward trend. In short term one can expect moderate gains in soya oil but considering that the USDA report released last week was perceived as neutral from price movement perspective possibility for a long lasting upside rally is ruled out currently.
Soy bean found strong support at the 3750 mark amid recovery in International markets aided by steady demand in the domestic markets. Strength in RM seed was positive for soybean during early hours and the trend was supported also from consistent inquiries from soymeal exporters.

GUAR COMPLEX
Guar failed to recover with good monsoon reports continuously preventing a strong recovery in prices. Traders however anticipate the present rates to be on the lower side with strong further fall in prices being ruled out even if monsoon turns out to be normal.

Others
Traders anticipate RM seed prices to firm up further in the near term. Ongoing marriage season can help lifting trade sentiments in coming weeks. From a broader perspective bullish outlook soybean and palm oil higher import duty on mustard oil lowering arrivals and drop in the crop acreage shall keep the downside in check.
Profit booking was noted for Mentha after the recent highs even as demand started rising at these lower levels.Rising demand on the export front amidst low arrivals had supported the market of late. However good crop sowing reports limited the uptrend. However supplies will start improving June onwards therefore futures are unlikely to sustain above 1400 mark as of now.

RMSEED
For the current week June RM seed can trade with strong tone in case the contract fails to trade below 3850. On the other hand strong resistance will be seen between 4000 and 4030 levels. We expect the downtrend to be limited with summer season demand likely to rise in coming weeks.
For this week June RM seed can trade with upward bias as long as stays comfortably above 4000. Strong resistance may be seen around 4150- 4200. One can buy the RMSEED with Stop loss of 3935

GUARGUM5
Prices kept trading weak for Guar as normal monsoon and its early arrival predictions by the IMD kept pressure on the market sentiments. Traders however anticipate the present rates to be on the lower side with strong further fall in prices being ruled out. Technically market is trading with negative sentiment. It is having important support the level of 8200, while resistance place between the level of 8300 – 8320. One can make the sell position below the level of 8200 with stop loss of 8325


Silver
Last week Silver started on negative note but found enough support near the level of 39600. We saw slight covering in it from the lower levels. It closed at 40195 with the overall loss of 0.85% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect positive movement from the lower levels due to formation of bullish candlestick pattern on the lower levels on daily chart.

For this week, if Silver July Futures breaks the level of 40250 then it can test the level of 40750 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 40020


COPPER
On its weekly chart copper prices are trading on higher level with positive sentiment. And look like market settled above the level resistance of 450 and ready to higher to the level of 480 and then 490. On the upside it is having resistance at the level of 468 while near term support level placed at 462. One can make buy above the level of 468 for the target of 478 with maintain the stop loss of 462


GBPINR
Last week, GBPINR May Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 92.3550 but till the end of the week, most of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 91.8350 with the overall gain of 0.27% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as its forming very good upside trend line on the charts and we can expect downside movement after the trend line breakout.

For this week, if GBPINR May Futures breaks the level of 91.3900 then it can test the level of 90.7025 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 91.7625


EURINR

Last week, EURINR May Futures started the week on positive note and after that it witnessed downside movement for the remaining part of the week. It made a low of 79.9075 during the week and closed at 80.2425 with the overall loss of 0.42% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as its sustaining near to the major support level of 79.8725 with the negative RSI.

For this week, if EURINR May Futures breaks the level of 80.0650 then it can test the level of 79.5125 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 80.4125

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