Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 15 May 2018


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Gold prices managed to recover back from initial setbacks and settled near week high. Traders turned back their attention and rushed for buying as prices approached near key support level of Rs.30850.whereas a trigger above the same could lead them towards previous swing high of Rs.31620. On technical parameter RSI is inching higher on daily time frame that is seen supportive for prices. On the lower side Rs.31000.would be initial available support for the prices whereas Rs.30850 can be seen as a key base in near term. Looking at the chart structure we advise to buy gold on dips while considering mentioned levels.

The energy counter traded with strong bullish sentiments rallying for the fourth consecutive week in a row. Uptrend on both daily and weekly charts is intact with fresh buyers entering at every dip.Biassed of the week ahead remains bullish as prices have given a breakout above Rs.4845/bbl and $71.86/bbl for Nymex crude.

Natural gas futures rose nearly three in American trade to April 27 highs as the dollar index fell off December 22 highs following earlier data from China the world's largest energy importer and the US the biggest energy consumer including the EIA report that showed another inventory build up. 

Base Metals
The London Metal Exchange three-month copper and aluminium price were down (-0.2%) and (-0.4%) respectively while the rest of its peers managed to eke out gains. At the time of writing LME lead outperformed with a strong gain of (+0.7%) followed by tin with (+0.3%) while nickel and zinc were almost unchanged.But with a total trading volume at 3,729 lots below the weekly average of 5,540 lots this suggests a very quiet market as metals prices consolidates ahead of the annual LME Asia Week gathering in Hong Kong.

Jeer failed to sustain higher because of easing buying interest in spot markets. Good monsoon reports once again capped the upside. Slowing down of new crop arrivals from Gujarat / Rajasthan are supporting market sentiments.

Rmseed Weekend profit taking kept the trend down and no bearish news was reported. Rising demand on export and domestic front will support prices in coming weeks. Normal Monsoon reports are likely to remain favourable for the crop sowing from June and that could limit the up trend.

Mentha oil ended at 4% lower circuit as sellers participation improved. Rising demand on the export front amidst low arrivals had supported the market of late.The arrivals of the new crop in coming weeks could limit the uptrend. However supplies will start improving June onwards therefore futures are unlikely to sustain above 1400 mark as of now.

It may be noted that the report was neutral to slightly bearish for soya oil. Soya oil is a strong competitor of palm oil and both bear a strong positive correlation with each other.In the current week palm oil outlook shall depend on production and export prospects which will be crucial in guiding soya oil prices to a great extent.

Markets looks weak as of now as premonsoon showers in many parts of India continues putting pressure over tradersmindset. However near term support will be seen from positive trend in crude oil prices and firmness in Dollar vs Rupee. Guar failed to sustain above 3840 for yet another session.

Futures traded with positive tone yesterday but failed to hold higher amid limited spot buying interest ( against rising prices). The long term fundamentals for RM seed are most likely to support prices after every moderate dip in coming weeks.

Cotton showed sideways to negative trend amid lack of bullish cues from overseas markets. The May contract will difficult to sustain above major resistance of 21000 in coming week. Fall in International markets are likely to pressurize prices in the short term.

For the current session June soybean is likely to trade with a negative note and may find comfortable in sustaining near the level of 3700. On the other hand strong resistance will be seen around 3800. In coming week futures can show negative trend. Below the level of 3700 we can see next support level near the level of 3550 and then 3500. One can make sell position with stop loss of 3758.

Futures traded with positive tone yesterday but failed to hold higher amid limited spot buying interest ( against rising prices). The long term fundamentals for RM seed are most likely to support prices after every moderate dip in coming weeks. Moving forward we expect the downtrend to be limited with summer season demand likely to rise in coming weeks For this session June RM seed will trade with upward bias as long as stays comfortably above 3900. With prices still running lower, prevailing optimistic views regarding government not to allow prices to fall below the MSP level (for a longer duration) will be seen as a limiting factor for the downward trend.

Last week JPYINR May Futures started the week on negative note but till the end of the week, all of its earlier losses were erased and it closed at 61.7525 with the overall gain of 0.25% on weekly basis. Technically its sustaining above the trend line breakout with the positive RSI and Moving Averages and for this week, we can expect good upside movement in it.

For this week, if JPYINR May Futures breaks the level of 61.8000 then it can test the level of 62.3000 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL of 61.5000.

Last week USDINR May Futures started the week on positive note and market is continue to go higher from last couple of trading weeks and we still believe that market will continue its main trend to the next important level of 68.0000. Last week it closed at 67.4400 with the overall gain of 0.56% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it..
For this week, if USDINR May Futures breaks the level of 67.6400 then it can test the level of 68.0000 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 67.3400

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